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Study the stats to tip an NRL winner

Tips.com.au has launched. Australia's newest and biggest footy tipping game.

It's a fun, free-to-play game, where everyone can play - you don't even need footy knowledge to play, you just need to place your tips and see which of your friends, family, colleagues you can beat!

Be sure to register before the footy season starts. Start your own comp today and register at Tips.com.au

When you go chasing the big cash prize on offer at Tips.com.au it never hurts to have some stats to back up your hunch.

And with lots of cash on offer - the No. 1 NRL tipster at the end of the season wins $50,000, and there is $1 million up for grabs in the Million Dollar Streak - I have come armed with lots of stats.

 

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The table below sets out the win/loss record both home and away for every NRL team over the past three season (2017-19), and while you no doubt will draw your own conclusions from the figures, I have added mine below because I am nothing if not opinionated.

 

NRL WIN/LOSS RECORDS (2017-19)

 

Team Wins Losses Home Win % Away Win %
Storm 56 16 72.2 83.3
Roosters 52 20 75 69.4
Sharks 43 29 58.3 61.1
Rabbitohs 41 31 58.3 55.6
Broncos 41 30 65.7 50
Panthers 39 33 63.9 44.4
Raiders 36 36 52.8 47.2
Eels 36 36 63.9 36.1
Sea Eagles 35 37 52.8 44.4
Dragons 35 37 55.6 41.7
Warriors 31 40 45.7 37.1
Cowboys 31 41 44.4 41.7
Wests Tigers 30 42 47.2 36.1
Bulldogs 28 44 47.2 30.6
Knights 24 48 38.9 27.8
Titans 19 53 27.8 25

 

 

 

 

NB the Broncos and Warriors are the only team to have had a draw in the period

 

SOME TIPPING TAKEAWAYS FROM THE STATS

 

* Tip the Storm every week and twice when they are playing away.

* The Sharks may have lost their home ground advantage for 2020 due to development at Shark Park but that may not hurt Cronulla too much as they are the only team (other than the Storm) to boast a better away record than home record.

* The Roosters have the best home record of any team, don't worry too much about form and opposition just lock them in for the season - except when they play the Storm then you may as well toss a coin.

* The Eels have the worst Home/Away differential. Parramatta sit third for home wins but slide all the way down to 11th for away wins. The explanation for this is simple - Parramatta were abject on the road in 2018 losing all twelve away matches.

* In order the Panthers, Broncos and Bulldogs are next on the list of teams who perform far better at home than away.

* 'Fortress Brookvale' hasn't really been a thing for the past three seasons, the Sea Eagles have the equal ninth best strike rate at home which aligns with the overall rating. The Sea Eagles were actually comparatively better on the road than at home with the equal seventh best away record over the span.

* The Cowboys face long away trips (even intra-Queensland trips involve more kilometres on the road than faced by Sydney teams heading to Brisbane for example) but the miles do not weary them. That's not to say the Cowboys have been good on the road, they rank equal ninth for away strike rate; however, their overall strike rate is 11th so they at least have not been much worse when travelling.

* The Titans have been terrible. Unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the opening few rounds then Do. Not. Tip. The. Titans.

 

Good luck with your tipping - unless it comes down to you versus me in the Million Dollar Streak in which case I suggest you take the Titans.



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