Margaret Strelow says the Government is offering Rockhampton crumbs when it comes to election promises.
Margaret Strelow says the Government is offering Rockhampton crumbs when it comes to election promises. Chris Ison ROK131117cstrelow4

Revealed: Complex process to finding Rocky's next MP

QUESTIONS are being asked about how long it will take before the seat of Rockhampton will be declared.

It's a complex picture that could be resolved quickly or, more likely, by mid next week after preference votes are counted.

Hopefully this report provides an insight into the complexities at play.

Presently the primary vote has Labor's Barry O'Rourke (31.91 per cent), One Nation's Wade Rothery (21.24 per cent) and Independent candidate Margaret Strelow (23.67 per cent) in the running to win after Saturday's election.

 

One Nation's Rockhampton candidate Wade Rothery with party leader Pauline Hanson.
One Nation's Rockhampton candidate Wade Rothery with party leader Pauline Hanson. Contributed

The Morning Bulletin understands only the preferences of the 1573 Greens votes have been tallied. The Greens finished last and are out of calculations.

While these figures haven't been publicly revealed (don't worry we will be asking why), the Greens directed voters to preference Labor.

Whether voters followed this direction remains to be seen.

The next pinchpoint comes when the LNP vote (17.74 per cent) can't topple One Nation, currently sitting third and the LNP is exhausted from contention.

 

LNP candidate for Rockhampton Douglas Rodgers.
LNP candidate for Rockhampton Douglas Rodgers. Chris Ison ROK301017clnp1

Currently the gap between these two parties is 1011. There are still more than 5000 votes not counted. Some of these will be postal votes still trickling in.

It's unknown just when the Electoral Commission of Queensland will have the confidence to trigger the next preference count - there is some speculation it could be as early as today.

The commission allows 10 days after the election for votes to arrive.

This also includes any absentee votes cast from anywhere in the world.

With all eyes on Rockhampton, no-one in this burueaucratic space will want to get it wrong.

The LNP directed its first preference to One Nation.

Ms Strelow currently has a 705 primary vote lead on Mr Rothery. However, this doesn't take into account the preferences of Greens. If any Green voters didn't follow the party's direction it's far more likely they would preference Ms Strelow over One Nation.

Several sources have told The Morning Bulletin that people don't seem to have necessarily followed a party's direction with their preferences, illustrating people have taken voting seriously and thought beyond first choices.

 

ALP Candidate for Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke.
ALP Candidate for Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke. Chris Ison ROK131117calp2

A big unknown remains how many postals are still to come in. At the last election there was 4.99 per cent of postal votes. Currently 4.46 per cent of the vote has been from postals.

Given the increase of pre-polls this time, it's unlikley this figure will jump dramatically, however, there are still theoretically more than 5500 votes up for grabs.

At the last election, Rockhampton was declared with 91.76 per cent of the vote counted - missing 2694 votes. However the electorate was 3105 people smaller.

The informal vote in 2015 was 2.73 per cent.

The Electoral Commission of Queensland says: "In seats where the race is tight, we could be waiting for the postal votes to be sent back before it is possible to declare a winner."



'Too low': Call for dole to be doubled

'Too low': Call for dole to be doubled

'It is forcing us to live under the poverty line"

Property prices a key for city deals

premium_icon Property prices a key for city deals

Population set to grow in regions

Bundaberg man on trial for raping child cousin

premium_icon Bundaberg man on trial for raping child cousin

23-year-old says he has never had any sexual interest in children

Local Partners