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Newspoll reveals who will likely win Bundy and Queensland

LOCAL VISIT: LNP Candidate David Batt and Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls at Austchilli in Bundaberg.
LOCAL VISIT: LNP Candidate David Batt and Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls at Austchilli in Bundaberg. Paul Donaldson BUN201117LNP17

LABOR will win Saturday's Queensland election but will lose the seat of Bundaberg, according to a poll of marginal electorates.

The Newspoll, published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, has LNP candidate David Batt edging our incumbent Labor MP Leanne Donaldson, with a two-party preferred result of 53-47.

Ms Donaldson won Bundaberg at the 2015 election with a TPP vote of 50.5-49.5, making it Labor's most marginal electorate.

The weekend's poll shows Ms Donaldson's primary vote is at 33 per cent, down 5.5 per cent on 2015 when she ousted former police minister and now mayor Jack Dempsey.

The LNP is sitting on 37 per cent, down 5.4 per cent, almost exactly the same margin as Ms Donaldson.

Those voters have shifted to One Nation, whose candidate Jane Truscott is sitting on 21 per cent. The rest of her support comes from voters who mainly backed the Palmer United Party in 2015.

The results are not reflected in the latest NewsMail online poll.

At noon today, 1743 people had taken part in the poll, with Ms Donaldson on 38 per cent, Dr Truscott on 29 per cent and Mr Batt languishing on 18 per cent.

The NewsMail poll, however,  is not a scientific poll.

The Weekend Australian Newspoll also revealed that Bundaberg voters back the LNP for creating jobs but are opposed to the Adani mega mine in Central Queensland.

On the question of job creation, 42% considered the LNP better while 33% backed Labor.

On Adani, 42% of respondents were opposed to the controversial Indian-backed coal mine while 33% supported it.

Neither result is conclusive, with a quarter of respondents uncommitted on both issues.

Bundaberg has been one of Labor's strongholds in Queensland, with the party holding the seat for the entire 20th century, although several MPs left the party and sat as independents until voters turfed them out.

Before that, two conservative members represented the seat in the 1800s but the right had to wait until Cr Dempsey won the seat for the Nationals at the 2006 election for it to ditch Labor. That election was called when Bundy MP Nita Cunningham retired.



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