AFTER a hotter than average spring and summer across most of Australia, Queensland can expect a warm autumn.
According to Bureau of Meteorology's three- month temperature outlook it is likely (greater than a 65% chance) that both daytime (maximum) and night-time (minimum) temperatures will be warmer than normal throughout Queensland for March to May.
This does not mean there will be no cool spells this autumn. Rather, that temperatures averaged over March to May in your location are more likely to be above average than below average.
This type of pattern is fairly usual during El Niño events with the decreased cloud cover resulting in warmer than average daytime temperatures. This also compounds the effect of the lower rainfall usually experienced in El Niño's by increasing plant evapotranspiration and overall water demand.
Other effects of El Niño's include reduced tropical cyclone numbers, later than normal or failed monsoon onset and increased fire danger in southeast Australia. For more information bom.gov.au/climate/
As of the March 8 the 30-day average of the SOI is minus 22.9. For more information try longpaddock.qld.gov.au or usq.edu.au/icacs.
International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Southern Queensland